SitePass · Iroise demonstration
SitePass brings together observed conditions, operating indicators, historical extremes and climate projections in one traceable site profile. This Iroise demonstration is designed for an early technical and commercial screening of an offshore project.
What the demonstration covers
The passport describes the Iroise reference climate from ERA5, including wind, waves, seasonality and indicative operating conditions. It is a screening view: a useful starting point before site-specific measurements and engineering design.
Hourly ERA5 coverage spans 47 years for the historical extreme indicators. Return-level fits and rolling windows help frame exposure, while keeping the interpretation explicit: they do not attribute past extremes to climate change and do not provide future extreme projections.
The pilot CMIP6 ensemble reports monthly mean changes. Results describe the available ensemble and its scenarios; they are not calibrated probabilities.
Regional CORDEX summary
EURO-CORDEX, CMIP5, EUR-11 is kept separate from CMIP6: it combines the 1985–2005 historical period with RCP values for 2006–2014. These are monthly means, not extreme indicators. RCP scenarios are not equivalent to SSP scenarios, and this small, dependent ensemble should be read as conditional model output.
| Variable | Scenario | Period | Median | Unit | P17–P83 | Chains | GCMs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | RCP45 | 2041-2070 | -2.18 | % | -2.31–-0.55 | 3 | 2 |
| Wind | RCP45 | 2071-2100 | -1.25 | % | -1.32–-0.63 | 3 | 2 |
| Wind | RCP85 | 2041-2070 | -1.07 | % | -1.45–-0.38 | 3 | 2 |
| Wind | RCP85 | 2071-2100 | -2.32 | % | -3.24–-1.51 | 3 | 2 |
| Air temperature | RCP45 | 2041-2070 | 0.86 | °C | 0.58–0.88 | 3 | 2 |
| Air temperature | RCP45 | 2071-2100 | 1.42 | °C | 0.99–1.44 | 3 | 2 |
| Air temperature | RCP85 | 2041-2070 | 1.3 | °C | 1.15–1.33 | 3 | 2 |
| Air temperature | RCP85 | 2071-2100 | 2.2 | °C | 1.96–2.27 | 3 | 2 |
Daily CORDEX extremes
sfcWind, tas daily-mean indicators are available for RCP45, RCP85 across 31 matched climate windows. Daily-mean wind is not a gust. Read the full French analysis.
Regional wave hindcast
Copernicus Marine IBI covers 1991–2020. It is a historical hindcast, not a future wave projection. Read the full French comparison.
How to read the results
The values shown here come from the downloadable study JSON. The passport keeps the source, period, method and status alongside each indicator. CMIP6 changes use the 1985–2014 baseline. Regional AR6 sea level is evaluated separately at Le Conquet, relative to 1995–2014. They support comparison and scoping; they do not replace metocean design criteria, a measurement campaign, an impact assessment or a certified energy study.
A documented starting point
The French report contains the full Iroise presentation and 19 figures, with methods, provenance and limitations carried alongside the results.
Scope note. This is a work-in-progress demonstration. The available data and model ensemble are intentionally shown with their limits, so a project team can identify what should be measured, refined or validated next.